DAY 3 of COP28: Our own view, beyond the headlines
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/razanalmubarak_cop28-climateaction-naturebasedsolutions-activity-7136732601905463296-3nwT
After another busy day at the COP28 with world leaders and various dignitaries, here is what caught our eye.
The morning was hastily underway with 118 Governments joining a pledge to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. This move was welcomed by most, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen describing it as a message of hope. It is worth noting that the EU’s own climate neutral 2050 strategy will likely need to be revised and made more ambitious in light of its own pledge to support this tripling target, so let’s see how that plays out going forward.
However not all State Leaders were happy. Tina Stege, Climate Envoy for the Marshall Islands, said that it was only "half the solution" and that the pledge "can't greenwash countries that are simultaneously expanding fossil fuel production". Interestingly, this came on the back of news that the COP28 advisor Hilde Heine (former President of the Marshall Islands), resigned from the COP28 advisory board due to concerns of the news reports last week from the BBC stating that the UAE planned to use COP28 to strike new oil and gas exploration deals. COP28 will now have to start dealing with arguably its most difficult challenge – that of whether the energy transition will include a phase out of all fossil fuels, or just a phase down of emissions from fossil fuels. Watch this space.
On the energy transition issue, 50 Oil companies representing roughly 50% of global production have pledged near zero methane emission targets, along with the end of flaring operations by 2030. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, so action to reduce it is crucial to have a chance of limiting warming to 2°C or below. Environmental groups were quick to criticise this pledge, saying it was a cover up, hiding the reality of phasing out fossil fuels as a whole. This shows how much trust the fossil fuel industry has to build to demonstrate their efforts are credible. The issue is deep-seated, given their historical role in discrediting climate science and funding think tanks to spread misinformation.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/2/at-cop28-oil-companies-pledge-to-lower-methane-emissions?traffic_source=rss
The U.S.A pledged to cut down methane emissions by 80% in the next 15 years, a total of 58m tonnes by 2038. Whilst President Joe Biden did not attend COP28, the USA has been represented at high levels by Anthony Blinken and John Kerry, and their role in leading the pledge to triple renewable energy and cutting methane emissions is a positive step in the right direction. Despite this, the largest historical emitter of GHGs still has a long way to go in the eyes of many.
Can COP28 become the first to integrate nature and climate agendas? The UN Climate High Level Champion for COP28, Razan Al Mubarak, has been working hard in this area. We at Earth Matters Consulting are proud to have supported her over the last 24 months. Alongside President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, a UAE-Brazil COP to COP partnership was announced to mobilise resources for a nature-based climate response towards COP30 in Belem. The Nature Finance Hub is set to mobilise $1 billion by 2030 for Nature-based Solutions. This is a pivotal shift of the current climate finance, underscoring the importance of biodiversity and the economic resilience of the people relying on natural ecosystems. The finance gap for nature is still massive, though estimated to be $722-967 billion per year by 2030. This is despite the IPCC estimating that nature offers our second biggest potential for mitigation at ~6 GT CO2 by 2030 (after renewables).
On the topic of climate finance, yesterday leaders around the world talked about the colossal budgets countries have for weapons and war-related industries, and how insignificant the climate budgets were in comparison. The Transnational Institute, an international profit research and advocacy think tank said that "by diverting just 5% of Global military budgets, the world could raise roughly $110 billion for climate finance". This figure is more than enough for the annual climate finance target of $100 billion. Even this figure of $100 billion per year is a red herring when countries from emerging markets need to spend about $2.4 trillion per year by 2030 to deal with the energy transition, adaptation and loss and damage and sustainable agriculture. With the USA pledging $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, the GCF is now close to its $100 billion figure mark – but the road ahead requires exponential levels of investment. If climate is as much of a priority as for example fighting wars and pandemics, then we know the money can be found, it just needs political will and leadership.
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