COP28: Global Energy Transition
The hot topic at the COP is energy transition and how it will be part of the Global Stock Take (GST).
First of all, it’s important to know what we are attempting to transition from. We have been living in an era of fossil fuels. Whilst this may not be surprising news to most of us, the extent of the climate challenges we face today are direct ramifications of our past actions.
So how far off track are we?
We already know that we are not on target for 1.5, it is as simple as that. According to the latest report from Climate Action Tracker, only one of 43 indicators is on track (see figure below).
However, the significance of the next 8 days is colossal. The ability of our Global Leaders to map out clear expectations on what more is needed to achieve 1.5 degrees by 2050 is what the world climate situation is balancing on.
With the COP28 President currently under pressure regarding statements made about the science behind phase out of fossil fuels, it’s important to take a close look at the science behind what the future energy transition is.
Figure: IEA, Total energy supply by source in the Net Zero Scenario, 2022-2050, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/total-energy-supply-by-source-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2022-2050, IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0
The International Energy Agency reported that a net zero future will require close to zero reliance on fossil fuels by 2050. There will remain a small prevalence of unabated oil, natural gas and coal in the 2050 predictions global energy mix. This point is also reinforced by the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report on 1.5°C.
Figure: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/
However, in all four IPCC pathways and the IEA, fossil fuel will undergo no new capacity expansion and will in fact see a large reduction, which means essentially an almost complete phase out. A 100% phase out of fossil fuels might be unachievable by 2050. Due to this, there is a debate about the range of technological advancements in the areas of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS), hydrogen, and others, and the extent of reliance on these technologies, revolving around the terminology of phasing 'down' rather than phasing ‘out’ - this is what is dividing this year's COP. The technological advancements in CCUS have not been proven on a large scale, and moreover it is costly.
As the Parties at COP discern the interpretation between “phasing out” and “phasing down”, the true contention lies in what a just, orderly and equitable energy transition looks like. Questions remain around who will produce the tiny slice of oil and gas that may remain in the energy mix in 2050 – will it be the UAE and the gulf region? Is it fair for the gulf region to exploit their reserves but not those in Africa and Latin America? Fundamentally, the contention is underlined by the notion of common but differentiated responsibilities on the UNFCCC.
Fortunately, the pledge to triple renewable energy by 2030 is exactly the positive momentum this COP needed. However, both India and China have abstained from signing the pledge, despite committing to it earlier this year at the G20 summit in New Delhi. Fossil fuels account for 82% of primary energy consumption in China, and 88% in India. This leaves us with hints of what potentially could arise as contentious issues ahead of the GST. Did they abstain from the pledge because they will use it as a negotiation ploy to water down any text in the GST from “phase out” to “phase down”? This potentially might be an issue we will soon see in the headlines.
At Earth Matters, we recently had the opportunity to visit Unilever's Dubai Personal Care Factory as part of an energy transition event held there on 27th November 2023. The factory uses 93% renewable electricity, mostly through certificates, achieved a 40% energy reduction and 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Many issues around the transition to renewable energy were discussed in a fireside chat with HE Dr Nawal Al Hosany, UAE’s Permanent Representative to IRENA, moderated by Tanzeed Alam, Earth Matters’ MD. Similar issues were also raised on 4th December, when Tanzeed also participated in a roundtable organised by Schneider Electric about the role of industry in the energy transition.
We recognise that this solution isn't an easy fix, nor a cheap one. However, ever since the industrial revolution, we have been addicted to our use of fossil fuels. This has led to humans causing such damage to our climate and natural environment, that we are in unprecedented territory. We can either address this challenge now, and mobilise the trillions needed per year for the energy transition and to address the impacts of climate change. Or we end up paying a lot more down the track, eating into the loss and damage fund. Running away is not an option.
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